Red Alert: Rocket Fire Could Signal New Offensive on Mariupol
A car burns amid debris after rockets shelled the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, on Jan. 24.
(Image from Reuters video)
Analysis
Reports of heavy rocket artillery firing on the eastern parts of the city of Mariupol, Ukraine, as well as a statement made by a separatist leader, indicate the potential preparation of an offensive on the city. While this would be a significant escalation and an indicator of Russian intent to push further into Ukraine, potentially forming a much-rumored land connection to the northern border of Crimea, there are also several indicators required for such an offensive that are currently still missing.Reports of heavy rocket artillery firing on the eastern parts of the city of Mariupol have been widely reported, with the death toll rising to 27 people. Mariupol has been shelled in the past, notably in early September, but as the cease-fire took affect separatist forces generally conducted attacks only outside of the city. It is not clear whether this is simply an intensification of relatively static fighting along the front between Russian and pro-Russian forces on the one side, and Ukrainians, or the beginning of a Russian-led offensive to widen the pocket, or the opening move in a broader strategic offensive to link up with Crimea, 200 miles to the west of the pocket.
The widespread use of Grad Multiple Launch Rocket Systems indicates that this is a planned action with significant logistical support that it involves extensive use of Russian troops, though Grad fire has been widely used throughout the conflict. There have been indications that Russian forces, including Russian Marines, have moved into the eastern Ukraine pocket controlled by pro-Russian forces, giving the Russians offensive options. Heavy artillery preparations frequently precede Russian attacks, particularly by concentrated MLRS attack. Given the amount of munitions needed to supply concentrated fire, the Russians tend not to use them casually. The presence of Grad missiles indicates the possibility of artillery preparation for a broader offensive.
The attack comes days after the Russian forces secured the Donetsk Airport, important in defending the right flank of any offensive westward. It also comes days after Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, came to Ukraine and publicly announced that a small number of U.S. Army trainers would be arriving in Ukraine. While any large-scale offensive would have been considered and planned for much longer, the decision of the United States to send Lt. Gen. Hodges could have affected the dynamic of internal Russian calculations.
In any event, we do not yet know Russia’s strategic intentions. This could simply be an attempt to signal the danger Russia could pose to their negotiating partners in the west. It could be an attempt to extend the pocket they hold modestly. It could, finally, be the opening of an offensive toward Crimea.
The Russian position in Crimea is untenable. Crimea is easily isolated should Ukranian forces strengthen or Western forces get involved. Russia holds Crimea only to the extent that the West chooses not to intervene, or to the extent that it extends a relatively wide and robustly defended land bridge from Russia to the Crimea. Crimea and the Sevastapol naval facilities are of strategic importance to Russia and the decision to hold these facilities but not extend their power makes diplomatic sense, though it is not militarily rational. Either Russia can build the geographical structure to support Crimea, or it becomes a permanent weak point in the Russian position. The Russians do not want a massive confrontation with the West at a time of economic dysfunction, yet at the same time, having made the decision to hold Crimea, they will not have a better moment for consolidation.
This is an ongoing conversation in Moscow. It is not clear that it is over. The artillery may simply be a minor probe or it could be the preface to an assault. We know that there has been a significant increase in Russian presence in the pocket, but it does not seem to us that the Russians are logistically ready for a major offensive yet.
Taking Mariupol is a first step to a broader offensive. It is also an end in itself, anchoring the southern flank in the city, though may not even be that. However, the MLRS barrages on Mariupol open the door to multiple avenues of exploitation and have clearly moved the fighting to a new level, not so much in intensity, but in raising serious questions of strategic intention.
"Red
Alert: Rocket Fire Could Signal New Offensive on Mariupol is
republished with permission of Stratfor."
-------------------------------------------------------
Brief Comment from Brianroy
Currently, the United States (which is involved in both creating a European based New World Order, and is also a direct nation-state sponsoring terrorism via its foreign usurper in power, Obama) is sending Military Trainers into the Ukraine
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/land/army/2015/01/21/ukraine-us-army-russia/22119315/
where they landed at L'viv, some 40 miles from the Polish border, to be deployed to points of interests where the Russians are either invading or may likely invade. We should also expect that these will also deploy, by necessity, at training emplacements some 200 miles or less from the new borders with Russia, or the new front lines if the Russians press their advantage in Mariupol.
The U.S. Department of State, assisted by dozens from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigations and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, is believed to have installed a Coup Government in the Ukraine
-- (as also reported by Germany's Bild and so known on Russian Television
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jjsT7bV36Q
in which retaliation to German Security Services that leaked already publicly known such info of F.B.I. and C.I.A. Ukraine involvement through Bild (and merely vetted the accusations), our national arch-traitor who help coup the U.S. Government with Obama's foreign identity documents theft from the U.S. Department of State in March 2008, now head of C.I.A., John Brennan authorized and had 3500 German Intelligence Agent identities compromised and exposed to the world as part of his insidious insanity
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/189951#.VMQYaC5cAqI
) --
in order to strip the country of its natural resources for foreign profiteers who support or are familial relations to those in the illegal (i.e., contrary to the Constitution of the United States empowered) Obama Administration, from George Soros
to usurper Vice-President Joe Biden's son.
Monsanto, with major shareholder guidance from eugenicists like billionaire Bill Gates,
http://www.infowars.com/bill-gates-monsanto-and-eugenics-a-corporate-takeover-of-global-agriculture/
is also involved in the agricultural takeover
http://naturalsociety.com/theyre-not-telling-monsantos-role-ukraine/
of the Ukraine, with the (what I editorially say and believe to be a 100% correct) alleged intent to genetically contaminate and infect all of Ukraine's wheat with a copyrighted strain owned by Monsanto, so as to prevent one of the last major locations of uninfected organic wheat from being grown anywhere in the world. In about 20 years time, we can expect that a series of Monsanto based or Monsanto caused mutations upon its copyrighted wheat strains will render the both wheat and corn as useless to both standard human and animal consumption, and good only for processing into an alcohol for hard liquor or as a fuel source only. To which as in the book of Revelation, it was so stated in regard to the coming Tribulation Period, and the opening of the 3rd Seal:
5And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. (KJV)
(5) And when he open-opened the THIRD SEAL
that was impressed (as with a signet ring),
I attentively heard the
Third Living Animalistic Creature
laying down forth and uttering definite
words, speaking,
'Come and see - perceive - observe.'
And behold, look and see, I saw a black horse,
and the (one) sitting down upon it
having - holding - seizing - taking - possessing - accepting
a (yoke beam of) scales, a balance, in the hand of him.
(AWPR)
6And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. (KJV)
(6) And I attentively heard a voice in (the) midst of
6And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine. (KJV)
(6) And I attentively heard a voice in (the) midst of
the 4 Living Animalistic Creatures
laying down forth and uttering definite
words,saying,
'A Choenix - Pint - Pound of Wheat
(as) a day's wages,
and 3 Choenixes - Pints - Pounds of Barley
(as) a day's wages.
And the Olive Oil and the
Fermented / Alcoholic Wine
certainly do NOT damage - injure - hurt.'
(AWPR)
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[[[[[[ Mariupol Update January 25, 2015....
"Red Alert Update: At the Heart of the Mariupol Crisis is republished with permission of Stratfor."
End of Update January 25, 2015 ]]]]]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[[[[[ Mariupol Update January 25, 2015....
"Red Alert Update: At the Heart of the Mariupol Crisis is republished with permission of Stratfor."
Red Alert Update: At the Heart of the Mariupol Crisis
Analysis
As the situation on the ground quiets down in the wake of the Jan. 24 barrage by Russian-allied forces near the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, Stratfor is continuing the watch initiated by our Red Alert. We believe, at the very least, that Russia is keeping its option to mount an offensive open, and at most, is preparing to launch an offensive to secure its hold on the Crimean Peninsula.
The artillery barrage in Mariupol has died down, and according to the Ukrainian military's local commander, there have been no attacks today. Some diplomacy is spinning up, and mutual charges of responsibility are being exchanged. The pro-Russian faction is blaming the Ukrainian military for the attack, and the Ukrainians are charging that the Russian military initiated the barrage, not Ukrainian pro-Russian factions. The fog of war is being supplemented by deliberate disinformation on all sides. The issue is whether this was an isolated incident or part of an extended strategy. If it is, it is not a Ukrainian strategy. Following recent defeats, Ukraine is not in a position to go on the offensive in this region, despite a noticeable build up and mobilization of Ukrainian forces in recent weeks. The Russians, however, have been moving regular forces, including some first-rate units, into Donbas. More important than the charges and counter-charges is this fact: At this moment, the rebels are being strongly reinforced by Russian forces, and those forces have an operational advantage but a strategic problem.
Consider this from the standpoint of a Russian military planner. The operational advantage is that the separatists have more and better forces available for combat. The strategic problem is that this advantage is temporary. If the United States chooses to increase arms transfers and training, the operational gap will close in 6-12 months. The rebels' broader strategic problem is geographical. Russia holds Crimea, but it has little sustainable contact with its forces there. Both sea and air transport can be interdicted. The best access to the peninsula is by land, but the routes are heavily defended by mobile and strategic surface to air missiles and armor to the north. Opening the route up would not be easy, but it would dramatically increase Ukraine's cost of severing Russia's link to Crimea. Without this, blockading Crimea would be relatively easy for the United States, Ukraine and other allies once their capabilities are increased and more units are deployed.
There is a connection to Crimea over the Kerch Strait from Russia proper of course, now based on ferry traffic but with plans for a bridge. But if war were to come, such tenuous links can easily be closed by a capable enemy. They are useful in peacetime, but vulnerable in war and near-war situations.
If Russia is serious about holding on to Crimea, it has a diplomatic route and a military route that it can use. The diplomatic route would be to gain international recognition of its hold on Crimea. That will be difficult to get, certainly if Russia is passive. The alternative is to create a military presence that might be attacked but would have significant ability to resist. The third option is to use the threat of an attack on Ukrainian positions to force a more favorable political settlement. If that fails, Russia still has the superior strategic position that it has now.
If the Russians are serious about holding Crimea, and if their calculation of how the correlation of forces will shift over coming months is the same as ours, then they now have a window of opportunity to redefine the strategic reality using their current operational superiority. Whether this results in a diplomatic settlement instead of further combat will be up to the West.
The counter-argument will be that, given Russia's economic problems, the diplomatic consequences of further offensive operations would increase the strain on Russia. From a political point of view, however, pure passivity in the face of sanctions that are not the critical factor in Russia's economic downturn will hurt the government's legitimacy at home while offering no real economic advantage. In addition, the Americans are not eager for a Ukrainian conflict while their forces are engaged in the Middle East. Therefore, while nothing is certain, a Russian strategist might well calculate that the risks of passivity are higher than those that come with an offensive. The military buildup in Donbas, the concentration of artillery, certain incursions by Russian aircraft that would be needed to keep Western aircraft at a distance from the battle zone, including aircraft with standoff anti-armor capabilities, indicate to us that the Russians are at least keeping this option open, and at most, are preparing to launch an offensive.
Good strategy involves creating options while withholding commitment to any particular course until the political and diplomatic possibilities are played out in the context of a build up. It would seem to us that this is what the Russians are doing, while signaling capability if not yet intent. However, the Americans sending the commander of the U.S. Army to Kiev on a very public visit is a signal that the window is closing. That forces Russia to make decisions sooner rather than later.
The Red Alert we issued yesterday was triggered by what appeared to be artillery preparation by the Russians at exactly the point when a move toward Crimea would be launched. That was alarming. We think it was meant by the Russians to be alarming, a warning of Russian operational superiority and strategic imperatives. Things have quieted down. The quiet ought not to be taken as the end of anything.
We call Red Alerts when action is underway. While the action has now halted, the underlying crisis is intensifying. There are exits from the path to an offensive, though it is not clear that either side is prepared to pay the toll needed for the exit.
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