Targeting Tribal Leaders: A New Militant Tactic in Sinai
By Ashley Lindsey
This is the first reported case of militants attacking tribal leaders in Sinai. It comes soon after an attack on Egyptian security forces Aug. 5 and an attack on military checkpoints in northern Sinai on Aug. 8.
Although the militant tactic of targeting tribal leaders is new to
Sinai, the tactic has been common in conflict zones in the Middle East
and South Asia, such as in Yemen, Iraq and the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border region. Though it can offer many benefits to these militants --
including weakening the targeted tribe and possibly leading to its
co-option -- these kinds of attacks tend to only succeed in zones with
little government control and against tribes that cannot effectively
retaliate. Examining similar instances of this tactic thus provides a
helpful tool for assessing the consequences of attacks against tribal
elements in the Sinai Peninsula.
A Widespread Militant Tactic
Yemen
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has operated openly in Yemen's
tribal-dominated southern and eastern provinces for years. It has sought
to expand its presence and operations by winning over local tribes using tactics such as strategic marriages.
Lately, it appears to have begun a shift from wooing tribal leaders
to intimidating them. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula recently failed
in an attempt to assassinate tribal leader Majed al-Dhahab in the city
of Radda in Bayda province. An important tribal leader, al-Dhahab
participated in the offensive to drive al Qaeda -- and his own cousin, a
local al Qaeda leader -- from the region after the militant group
seized control of Radda in January. Al-Dhahab's son received a package
that unbeknownst to him contained a bomb, which he was instructed to
give to his father. However, the package exploded in his arms Aug.
4 before he could deliver it. Immediately after his son's death,
al-Dhahab received a call warning him that the group would kill anyone
who opposed it.
The group followed up with another attack on tribal elements Aug. 5. A
suicide bomber detonated an explosive device at a wake in Jaar, killing
45 people. The dead included several tribal fighters who had
participated in the June Yemeni government offensive against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and the wounded included a tribal leader.
The region's tribes have not publicly vowed to retaliate against the
militant group. If they are capable of doing so, they probably will
respond to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's attacks. But the tribes
could be too weak to mount an effective response, especially in the wake
of attacks on their leadership structure. This could cause some
tribesmen to abandon the fight, allowing militants to try to resume
activity in the region's towns should they wish.
Iraq and the Afghanistan-Pakistan Border
Although new to Yemen, militants frequently used the tactic of
attacking tribal leaders during the U.S. involvement in Iraq and
Afghanistan. The tactic is still frequently used, especially in the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border region. In one significant instance, in 2007
al Qaeda in Iraq assassinated high-profile Sunni tribal Sheikh
Abdul-Sattar Abu Risha, who led the Anbar Awakening Council. A U.S.
ally, Abu Risha had formed the council, uniting dozens of Sunni tribes
in the province against al Qaeda in Iraq. His killing backfired on the
militant group, generating a massive outpouring of sympathy for Abu
Risha and prompting the tribes in the province to join in vowing to
fight al Qaeda in Iraq to the death.
In southern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan,
the Afghan Taliban are deeply embedded into the tribal system. They
have effectively used the tactic of assassinating tribal leaders to
eliminate obstacles to their operations and evolution. To this end, they
regularly employ suicide operations, armed assaults and roadside bombs
against anti-Taliban militias known as lashkars and against tribal
leaders in northwestern Pakistan.
One area particularly affected by such attacks is Bajaur, a Pakistani
agency that borders Afghanistan's Kunar province. After numerous
attacks on tribal leaders and members of peace committees in Bajaur, the
Mamond tribe announced July 25 that the tribal leaders had formed a
lashkar to prevent cross-border attacks. Hundreds of elders, leaders and
religious figures of various subtribes and peace committees pledged
their support for this militia. As with the killing of Abu Risha, the
Afghan Taliban attacks on tribesmen and leadership in the region spurred
a fiercely united response across numerous tribes, with the new militia
even expressing a willingness to enter Afghanistan to attack Taliban
leaders.
Upsides and Downsides of a Militant Tactic
Militant groups attack tribal leaders to increase their influence and
area of operations. From the militants' perspective, removing a tribal
leader ideally will weaken the targeted tribe. This could end the
tribes' resistance and even lead to the its being co-opted by the
militant group due to a leadership vacuum following the militant attack.
The weakening of the tribe could leave the group no choice but to allow
the militant group to operate unchallenged in its territory. Even
though assassinated tribal leaders are replaced and the leadership
structure remains intact, tribal leaders in the area could be persuaded
to adopt a more accommodating stance on the presence of militants.
Success for a militant group in the long term happens under two
conditions. First, the militants must be acting in an area with a tribal
patronage network and limited government oversight. Without such a
network, attacks on tribal leaders in efforts to co-opt and intimidate
that tribe would not provide any significant gain. In Yemen, for
example, the patronage and tribal network are very strong and in most
cases enjoy greater legitimacy and power than the government. Attacks
against tribal chiefs there are accordingly tantamount to attacks on the
local government. On the one hand, that means tribal networks can band
together and shun foreign militant elements as one community. On the
other hand, if al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is able to coerce a
tribe into aligning with it, the militant group will then enjoy access
to that tribes' resources, will gain the ability to plan and launch
attacks in that area, and could even gain better relations with
neighboring tribes.
Second, the group must be militarily capable of overwhelming the
targeted tribe and its allies or at least of gaining the upper hand. As
can be seen from the Iraq example, killing Abu Risha backfired because
his tribe was large, committed and militarily strong, and it had the
support of several allied Sunni tribes that belonged to his Anbar
Awakening Council.
The tactic of targeting a tribal leader thus comes with certain
risks. When the aforementioned two conditions are not met, a militant
group exposes itself to great danger when it targets tribal leaders.
Consequences of the Sinai Assassination
The Sinai Peninsula meets the requirement of limited government
control and strong tribal networks. The question then becomes whether
the Sinai tribes can muster a strong defense against the militants. In
the coming weeks, it will be important to look for signs of the
retaliation pledged by al-Menahy's Sawarka tribe and others allied with
it. This retaliation could come in the form of attacks against the
militants passing through Sawarka and its allied tribes' territory.
Tribal retaliation could also come in the less aggressive, yet still
effective, form of supplying increased logistical support and
intelligence to the Egyptian government. Increased weapons seizures and
the arrest of key leaders suggest that tribal sources on the ground are
providing intelligence to Cairo. A targeted campaign against the
militants already has begun, with Egyptian planes bombing the mountains
of El Arish on Aug. 15. The intelligence for these attacks likely came
from local tribes.
The success of tribal and Egyptian security efforts against the
militants will determine whether the militants miscalculated their
position in Sinai when they attacked a key tribal leader. The resilience
of militants in Sinai also will help determine whether they can
continue to stage attacks against Egypt and Israel.
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Tribal leaders are not the only ones being targeted. Barbarity is at the heart of Islamic Fundamentalism and its operation as a religious entity in Government does not promote "freedom", only intolerance and barbarity to all, whether they submit to slavery or not.
Please also be especially aware of the hostility of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood toward Christians, and visit and sign up to
for e-mail updates. An example / sampling of recent posts follow below.Muslim Brotherhood 'Crucifies' Opponents, Attacks Secular Media
August 15, 2012 • Investigative Project on Terrorism
Last week in Egypt, when Muslim
Brotherhood supporters terrorized the secular media, several Arabic
websites—including Arab News, Al Khabar News, Dostor Watany, and Egypt
Now—reported that people were being "crucified." The relevant excerpt
follows in translation:
A Sky News Arabic correspondent in Cairo confirmed that protestors belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood crucified those opposing Egyptian President Muhammad Morsi naked on trees in front of the presidential palace while abusing others. Likewise, Muslim Brotherhood supporters locked the doors of the media production facilities of 6-October [a major media region in Cairo], where they proceeded to attack several popular journalists.
Continue to the full articleEgypt's Jihad Organizations Call for Christian Genocide
August 14, 2012 at 2:56 pm
According to today's issue of El
Fegr, "Elements of terrorist, jihadi organizations distributed leaflets
today inciting for the killing of Copts in Suez, Ismailia, and Upper
Egypt, promising them [Copts] a tragic end if they do not return to the
truth."
An
image of a copy of the letter appears on El Fegr's website. Titled "An
Urgent and Important Notice," it begins by calling on "all brothers and
sisters" to "kill or physically attack the enemies of the religion of
Allah—the Christians in all of Egypt's provinces, the slaves of the
Cross, Allah's curse upon them…" It proceeds to promise a monetary
reward for whoever helps "achieve Allah's rights against his enemies."
Action Alert: Support Bill to Help Persecuted Christians
August 13, 2012 at 3:58 pm
In "Obama Administration's War
on Persecuted Christians," I recounted the several ways the current U.S.
administration has censored, white-washed, and underplayed the ongoing
persecution of Christians in the Islamic world. One of the more recent
ways this "war of silence" has been waged is by blocking legislation to
create a special envoy for religious minorities in the Mideast and Asia.
Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) introduced the bill which, according to the Washington Post
"passed the House by a huge margin" (in fact, by 402 votes to 20). But
Sen. James Webb has single-handedly stalled the bill, citing State
Department recommendations which depict the bill as "unnecessary,
duplicative, and likely counterproductive."
Notorious Islamic Hate-Preacher Pardoned by Muslim Brotherhood President
August 7, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Wagdi Ghoneim, the Islamic
cleric whose many terrorist-connections and activities got him exiled
from Egypt where, under Mubarak's rule he was sentenced to do five years
in prison, has, according to several Arabic news sites, just received a
general pardon from Egypt's new president, Muhammad Morsi.
Ghoneim
is especially renowned for his hate-mongering and constant incitements
to kill Christians, Jews, and secular Muslims. Most recently, he praised
Allah for the death of Coptic Pope Shenouda, cursing him to hell and
damnation—even as many Egyptians were mourning him during his state
funeral.
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