Al Assad's Last Stand
December 6, 2012 | 1000 GMT
"Al Assad's Last Stand is republished with permission of Stratfor."
By Omar Lamrani
The battle for Damascus is raging with increasing
intensity while rebels continue to make substantial advances in Syria's north
and east. Every new air base, city or town that falls to the rebels further
underlines that Bashar al Assad's writ over the country is shrinking. It is no
longer possible to accurately depict al Assad as the ruler of Syria. At this
point, he is merely the head of a large and powerful armed force, albeit one
that still controls a significant portion of the country.
The nature of the conflict has changed significantly
since it began nearly two years ago. The rebels initially operated with meager
resources and equipment, but bolstered by defections, some outside support and
their demographic advantage, they have managed to gain ground on what was
previously a far superior enemy. Even the regime's qualitative superiority in
equipment is fast eroding as the rebels start to frequently utilize main battle
tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket and tube artillery and even
man-portable air-defense systems captured from the regime's stockpiles.
Weary and stumbling, the regime is attempting to
push back rebel forces in and near Damascus and to maintain a corridor to the
Alawite coast while delaying rebel advances in the rest of the country. Al
Assad and his allies will fight for every inch, fully aware that their power
depends on the ability of the regime forces to hold ground.
The Battle for Damascus
It is important to remember that, despite
considerable setbacks, al Assad's forces still control a sizable portion of
Syria and its population centers. After failing to take Damascus in Operation
Damascus Volcano in July, the rebels are again stepping up their efforts and
operations in the Damascus area. However, unlike in their previous failed
operation, this time the rebels are relying on an intensive guerrilla campaign
to exhaust and degrade al Assad's substantial forces in Damascus and its
countryside.
After the last surge in fighting around Damascus in
July and August, the regime kept large numbers of troops in the area. These
forces continued search and destroy operations near the capital despite the
considerable pressure facing its forces in the rest of the country, including
in Aleppo. Once the rebels began to make gains in the north and east, the
regime was forced to dispatch some of its forces around Damascus to reinforce
other fronts. Unfortunately for the regime, its operations in the capital area
had not significantly degraded local rebel forces. Rebels in the area began
intensifying their operations once more, forcing the regime to recall many of
its units to Damascus.
Aware of the magnitude of the threat, the regime has
reportedly shifted its strategy in the battle for Damascus to isolating the
city proper from the numerous suburbs. The rebels have made considerable
headway in the Damascus suburbs. For example, on Nov. 25 rebels overran the
Marj al-Sultan military air base in eastern Ghouta, east of the capital. Rebel
operations in the outskirts of Damascus have also interrupted the flow of goods
to and from the city, causing the prices of basic staples such as bread to
skyrocket.
Rebel Gains in the East and North
Damascus is not the only area where the regime is
finding itself under considerable pressure. The rebels have made some major
advances in the last month in the energy-rich Deir el-Zour governorate to the
east. Having seized a number of towns, airfields and military bases, the rebels
have also taken the majority of the oil fields in the governorate. They
captured the Al-Ward oil field Nov. 4, the Conoco natural gas reserve Nov. 27
and, after al Assad's forces withdrew from it on Nov. 29, the Omar oil field
north of the town of Mayadeen. Al Assad's forces now control only five oil
fields, all located west of the city of Deir el-Zour. With the battle for the
city and its associated airfield intensifying, even those remaining fields are
at risk of falling into rebel hands.
The rebel successes in Deir el-Zour have effectively
cut the regime's ground lines of communication and supply to Iraq. They have
also starved the regime of the vast majority of its oil revenue and affected
its ability to fuel its war machine. At the same time, the rebels are reportedly
already seeking to capitalize on their seizure of the eastern oil fields.
According to reports, the rebels are smuggling oil to Turkey and Iraq and using
the revenue to purchase arms. They are also reportedly using the oil and
natural gas locally for power generators and fuel.
While all of eastern Syria may soon fall into rebel
hands, rebels in the north have continued to isolate al Assad forces in Idlib
and Aleppo governorates, particularly in the capital cities of those two
provinces. After overrunning the 46th regiment near Atarib on Nov. 19 following
a two-month siege, the rebels are now looking to further squeeze remaining
regime forces in Aleppo by taking the Sheikh Suleiman base north of the 46th
regiment's former base.
The Rebels' Improved Air Defense Capability
Isolated and surrounded, regime forces in the north
are increasingly relying on air support for both defense and supply. However,
this advantage is deteriorating every day and is increasingly threatened by the
rebels' improved air defense arsenal and tactics.
The rebels first attempted to acquire air defense
weaponry by seizing heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft artillery. They
captured a number of air defense bases, taking 12.7 mm DShK heavy machine guns,
14.5 mm KPV heavy machine guns and even 23 mm ZU-23-2 autocannons. Over time,
the rebels became more proficient with these weapons, and an increasing number
of Syrian air force fixed-wing and rotary aircraft were shot down. The rebels
also formed hunter-killer groups with air defense equipment mounted on flatbed
trucks that provided them mobile platforms for targeting regime air and
infantry units.
As more and more regime bases were taken, the rebels
were able to bolster their air defense equipment through the capture of a
number of man-portable air-defense systems. At the outset of the conflict, the
Syrian military maintained a large inventory of shoulder-fired air-defense
missiles, likely thousands of missiles ranging from early generation SA-7s to
very advanced SA-24s. These missiles were stored in army bases across the
country. There are also unconfirmed reports that Qatar and Saudi Arabia may
have transferred some man-portable air-defense systems to the rebels through
Turkey.
The rebels tallied their first confirmed kill with
shoulder-fired air-defense missiles Nov. 27, when they shot down a Syrian Arab
Air Force Mi-8/17 helicopter near Aleppo city. The weapon system used in the
attack was likely an SA-7, SA-16 or SA-24 captured from the 46th regiment. The
surface-to-air missiles are a serious upgrade in the rebels' air defense
capability.
The Fight Continues
Having isolated al Assad's forces in the north and
made substantial advances in the east, the rebels are poised to push farther
into the Orontes River Valley to relieve the beleaguered rebel units in the
Rastan, Homs and al-Qusayr areas of Homs governorate. For months, regime forces
have sought to overwhelm the remaining rebel forces in Homs city, but the
rebels have managed to hold out. The rebels are also set to begin pushing south
along the main M5 thoroughfare to Khan Sheikhoun and the approaches to Hama.
However, first they need to overwhelm the remaining regime forces in Wadi
al-Dhaif near Maarrat al-Numan.
Alternatively, the regime is fighting hard to
maintain its control over the Orontes River Valley around Homs in order to keep
an open corridor linking Damascus to the mostly Alawite coast. Not only is this
corridor at risk of eventually being cut off, but the regime is also facing a
substantial push by rebel forces into northeastern Latakia governorate from
Idlib. Rebels have advanced in the vicinity of the Turkman Mountain, have taken
control of Bdama and are now fighting their way down in the direction of
Latakia city.
While events in Damascus and Rif Damascus are
increasingly worrisome for the regime, al Assad's forces in the rest of Syria
are also under considerable pressure from rebel advances. It is by no means
certain that al Assad's forces are under imminent threat of collapse because
they still hold a great deal of territory and no major city has yet been
completely taken by the rebels. The retreat and consolidation of al Assad's
forces also allows them to maintain shorter and less vulnerable lines of supply.
However, it is clear that the regime is very much on the defensive and has been
forced to gradually contract its lines toward a core that now encompasses
Damascus, the Orontes River Valley and the mostly Alawite coast. With the
regime's situation rapidly deteriorating, even the attempt to stage a gradual
withdrawal to the core is risky.
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Meanwhile...
US: Sarin bombs ready for Assad’s “go” order. Israel's odd silence
DEBKAfile Special Report December 6, 2012, 8:13 AM (GMT+02:00)American officials said Wednesday, Dec. 4, that they believed bombs had been made ready with sarin gas, but not yet loaded onto fighter planes and Assad had not issued the “go” order. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned President Assad once again that he would be crossing “a red line” if he used nerve gas against the country’s rebels. But “there’s little the outside world can do to stop it.”
In answer to US allegations, Syrian spokesmen reiterated that their government would not use chemical weapons against its own people.
... Debkafile reported Wednesday:
Facing Syria now are 10,000 US fighting men, 70 fighter-bombers and at least 17 warships, including the three Iwo Jima amphibious craft, a guided missile cruiser and 10 destroyers and frigates.
Four of these vessels are armed with Aegis missile interceptors.
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That means there is a very good possibility that the Syrians may very well launch any Chemical Weapons they have against the USS Eisenhower Task Force, and rightly so, as self defense to the Obama Administration supporting Al Qaeda terrorists in the overthrow of their duly elected and sovereign nation.
And what is to stop their Russian allies from giving Syria its first nuke to smoke the USS Eisenhower Task Force into oblivion in self-defense?
If Obama proves to the Russians to be a Muslim first and Communist second, so as to threaten to permanently strip the Russians of their Syrian Mediterranean Naval Base, Putin being ex-KGB and tougher than nails Cold War material, we can expect a full blown escalation before the end of December, with the Turkish Military and Iran as well as Russia rushing troops and arms into Syria on the double quick.
If that happens, the whole dynamic will spiral so far out of control, the only way to stop World War III will be for the Democrats in Washington D.C. themselves to force Obama to resign from the Presidency. The Democrats and those of the Obama Administration are too corrupt and incompetent to successfully pull off any other solution.
We can only hope the well more than 10,000 Sailors and Marines on 17 vessels don't have to perish in order for Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court (et al.) to remove someone who had no Constitutional right to occupy the U.S. Presidency in the first place, NOT having a United States Citizen Father and NOT being a mandated United States Natural Born Citizen by Article 2 Section 1 Clause 5 of the Constitution of the United States of America.
That's my input. - - Brianroy
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[[[[[December 9, 2012 update:
On December 7, 2012 World Net Daily reported
Obviously, it will be Russian troops manning these systems partly or wholly during at least the next 6 weeks or more.
On December 8, 2012 Debkafile reports Iranians are flying in arms shipments to Syria
On December 9, 2012, The Daily Star reports:
[[[[[December 9, 2012 update:
On December 7, 2012 World Net Daily reported
Hours after NATO agreed on Tuesday
to send Patriot missiles to Turkey because of the crisis in Syria, Russia
delivered its first shipment of Iskander missiles to Syria.
The superior Iskander can travel at
hypersonic speed of over 1.3 miles per second (Mach 6-7) and has a range of
over 280 miles with pinpoint accuracy of destroying targets with its
1,500-pound warhead, a nightmare for any missile defense system.
Obviously, it will be Russian troops manning these systems partly or wholly during at least the next 6 weeks or more.
On December 8, 2012 Debkafile reports Iranians are flying in arms shipments to Syria
President
Bashar Assad is regrouping his army in defense array in strategic parts of
Damascus, while planting mines and bomb traps in abandoned bases. Convoys
carrying missiles, shells and canisters armed with chemical and biological
weapons continue to ply roads to the north, while the airlift of Iranian arms
is rerouted to northern air bases.
SHEIKH SULEIMAN BASE, Syria:
Radical Islamist rebels on Sunday seized large swathes of a Syrian military base west of Aleppo, as they consolidated their control over territory in the north near the Turkish border, an AFP journalist said.
Sheikh Suleiman base sprawls over nearly 200 hectares (500 acres) of rocky hills about 25 kilometres (15 miles) from Aleppo city, an area now almost completely under rebel control.
Fighters hoisted a trademark black jihadist flag over one of the buildings they captured in the morning as firefights persisted with light weapons as they tried to take the rest of the base.
Many of the fighters are non-Syrian and one of their leaders, who identified himself as Abu Talha, said he is from Uzbekistan.
Three FSA [Free Syrian Army] brigades -- Nureddin Zinki, Al-Beit and Al-Ansar, whose ranks comprise mostly Islamist fighters -- have laid siege to the base for several weeks.
Radical Islamist rebels on Sunday seized large swathes of a Syrian military base west of Aleppo, as they consolidated their control over territory in the north near the Turkish border, an AFP journalist said.
Sheikh Suleiman base sprawls over nearly 200 hectares (500 acres) of rocky hills about 25 kilometres (15 miles) from Aleppo city, an area now almost completely under rebel control.
Fighters hoisted a trademark black jihadist flag over one of the buildings they captured in the morning as firefights persisted with light weapons as they tried to take the rest of the base.
Many of the fighters are non-Syrian and one of their leaders, who identified himself as Abu Talha, said he is from Uzbekistan.
Three FSA [Free Syrian Army] brigades -- Nureddin Zinki, Al-Beit and Al-Ansar, whose ranks comprise mostly Islamist fighters -- have laid siege to the base for several weeks.
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