DELEGATES at the 18th
annual UN climate gabfest at the dismal, echoing Doha conference center
– one of the least exotic locations chosen for these rebarbatively
repetitive exercises in pointlessness – have an Oops! problem.
No, not the
sand-flies. Not the questionable food. Not the near-record low
attendance. The Oops! problem is this. For the past 16 of the 18-year
series of annual hot-air sessions about hot air, the world’s hot air has
not gotten hotter. There has been no global warming. At all. Zilch.
Nada. Zip. Bupkis.
The
equations of classical physics do not require the arrow of time to flow
only forward. However, observation indicates this is what always
happens. So tomorrow’s predicted warming that has not happened today
cannot have caused yesterday’s superstorms, now, can it?
That means They
can’t even get away with claiming that tropical storm Sandy and other
recent extreme-weather happenings were All Our Fault. After more than a
decade and a half without any global warming at all, one does not need
to be a climate scientist to know that global warming cannot have been
to blame.
Or, rather, one
needs not to be a climate scientist. The wearisomely elaborate
choreography of these yearly galah sessions has followed its usual
course this time, with a spate of suspiciously-timed reports in the
once-mainstream media solemnly recording that “Scientists Say” their
predictions of doom are worse than ever. But the reports are no longer
front-page news. The people have tuned out.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPeCaC), the grim, supranational
bureaucracy that makes up turgid, multi-thousand-page climate
assessments every five years, has not even been invited to Doha.
Oversight or calculated insult? It’s your call.
IPeCaC is about to
churn out yet another futile tome. And how will its upcoming Fifth
Assessment Report deal with the absence of global warming since a year
after the Second Assessment report? Simple. The global-warming
profiteers’ bible won’t mention it.
There will be
absolutely nothing about the embarrassing 16-year global-warming stasis
in the thousands of pages of the new report. Zilch. Nada. Zip. Bupkis.
Instead, the report
will hilariously suggest that up to 1.4 Cº of the 0.6 Cº global warming
observed in the past 60 years was manmade.
No, that is not a
typesetting error. The new official meme will be that if it had not been
for all those naughty emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases the world would have gotten up to 0.8 Cº cooler since the 1950s.
Yeah, right.
If you will believe that, as the Duke of Wellington used to say, you will believe anything.
The
smarter minds at the conference (all two of us) are beginning to ask
what it was that the much-trumpeted “consensus” got wrong. The answer is
that two-thirds of the warming predicted by the models is uneducated
guesswork. The computer models assume that any warming causes further
warming, by various “temperature feedbacks”.
Trouble is, not one
of the supposed feedbacks can be established reliably either by
measurement or by theory. A growing body of scientists think feedbacks
may even be net-negative, countervailing against the tiny direct warming
from greenhouse gases rather than arbitrarily multiplying it by three
to spin up a scare out of not a lot.
IPeCaC’s official
prediction in its First Assessment Report in 1990 was that the world
would warm at a rate equivalent to 0.3 Cº/decade, or more than 0.6 Cº by
now.
But the real-world,
measured outturn was 0.14 Cº/decade, and just 0.3 Cº in the quarter of a
century since 1990: less than half of what the “consensus” had
over-predicted.
In 2008, the world’s
“consensus” climate modelers wrote a paper saying ten years without
global warming was to be expected (though their billion-dollar brains
had somehow failed to predict it). They added that 15 years or more
without global warming would establish a discrepancy between real-world
observation and their X-boxes’ predictions. You will find their paper in
NOAA’s State of the Climate Report for 2008.
By the modelers’ own
criterion, then, HAL has failed its most basic test – trying to predict
how much global warming will happen.
Yet Ms. Christina
Figurehead, chief executive of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, says “centralization” of global governing power (in her hands,
natch) is the solution. Solution to what?
And what solution?
Even if the world were to warm by 2.2 Cº this century (for IPeCaC will
implicitly cut its central estimate from 2.8 Cº in the previous
Assessment Report six years ago), it would be at least ten times cheaper
and more cost-effective to adapt to warming’s consequences the day
after tomorrow than to try to prevent it today.
It is the do-nothing
option that is scientifically sound and economically right. And nothing
is precisely what 17 previous annual climate yatteramas have done.
Zilch. Nada. Zip. Bupkis.
This year’s 18th
yadayadathon will be no different. Perhaps it will be the last. In
future, Ms. Figurehead, practice what you preach, cut out the carbon
footprint from all those travel miles, go virtual, and hold your climate
chatternooga chit-chats on FaceTwit.
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Earlier in November 2012, Lord Christopher Monckton spoke with Michael Coren of Sun TV to help expose Al Gore’s “extreme weather” propaganda
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